By Mike Cason
Sixty-five percent of voters in Alabama supported the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the third straight election he has carried the state in a landslide.
When Trump takes office on Jan. 20, he will have the backing of Republican majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to carry out his ideas.
What will Trump’s second term and the GOP-led Congress mean in a state so loyal to the president-elect?
Others say ideas floated by Trump, his advisors, and the GOP-led Congress, like slashing federal programs, would be damaging in Alabama, a state that depends more on federal assistance than most.
No plan for health care
During his first term as president, Trump called for the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, President Obama’s signature initiative, but that effort failed.
This time, Trump said he would not try to end Obamacare unless he came up with a better plan. He has not proposed one so far, although he said in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris in September that the ACA was “lousy healthcare.”
Robyn Hyden, executive director of the organization Alabama Arise, which advocates for policies that help low-income families, said Trump and Congress could weaken the ACA without repealing it, to the detriment of Alabamians who rely on it.
An example, Hyden said, would be to cut the tax credits that help people buy insurance on the ACA’s Health Insurance Marketplace. Congress increased the credits as part of the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) in 2021. Hyden said that made insurance more affordable for many. But the enhanced credits are scheduled to expire next year.
“That is one concern, not only those enhanced premium tax credits expiring and reverting to the low levels they were pre-ARPA, but there could be additional cuts or attacks to the Affordable Care Act,” Hyden said.
Another concern is possible changes or cuts to Medicaid, the federal-state health insurance program for the poor and disabled.
Federal funds pay about 70% of the cost of Medicaid in Alabama. Medicaid enrollment in Alabama generally hovers around 1 million people, with slightly more than half of those children.
Hyden said cuts to Medicaid, such as reducing the federal match paid to states, would be damaging.
“We’re hoping our state leaders, our governor, and our members of Congress and senators will protect and support our current healthcare infrastructure because those cuts would really be devastating,” Hyden said.
Those cuts would also be very harmful to pregnant women who rely on Medicaid, postpartum women,” Hyden said. “It’s key to reducing our maternal mortality rate, to make sure moms have pregnancy care before and after pregnancy.”
A report released last year showed Alabama had the nation’s highest rate of maternal mortality, or mothers dying from pregnancy-related causes. Alabama’s rate was almost double the national rate, and the rate for Black women was substantially higher.
Medicaid covered about 45% of births in Alabama in 2023, according to the March of Dimes.
“It would be devastating to rural hospitals that are already struggling to deal with uncompensated care, if fewer and fewer people actually have Medicaid,” Hyden said.
Would tariffs hurt Alabama?
Trump supports increased tariffs on imported goods, which he says would help American companies compete and create jobs but that economists say would raise costs and slow economic growth.
Trump said he will propose a 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports in retaliation to what he says are failures to stop illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking.
The president-elect has proposed a new 10% tariff on all products from China in addition to tariffs established during his first term, which average about 15%.
Critics say nations targeted by Trump’s tariffs would impose their own new taxes on U.S. products. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has warned about such retaliation.
During Trump’s first term, Gov. Kay Ivey said Alabama could lose approximately 4,000 jobs as a result of automotive tariffs the Trump Administration was considering.
Some say Trump is pushing tariffs as a negotiating tool.
State Sen. Garlan Gudger, R-Cullman, picked by his Republican colleagues to serves as president pro tem of the Alabama Senate starting next year, said he believes Trump is proposing tariffs for the right reasons.
“My personal belief, I feel like he’s doing what he thinks is right,” Gudger said.
Gudger said America needs policies to help compete against companies where manufacturing is cheap because of the absence of environmental regulations and other factors.
“A tariff is the only way we can have a level playing ground so that Americans can produce and have jobs, manufacturing jobs here in the states,” Gudger said.
Mass deportation
Trump has pledged to carry out the largest deportation project in American history. The Department of Homeland Security estimated there were about 11 million unauthorized immigrants living in the United States in 2022, with more than half from Mexico and Central America.
Alabama’s Hispanic population climbed to more than 250,000 in 2022, a 3.8% increase since 2021, according estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. That rate of growth in Hispanic population tied for the 8th fastest in the United States.
The Center for Migration Studies estimated there were about 60,000 undocumented immigrants living in Alabama in 2022, with about two-thirds of those from Mexico and Guatemala.
Alabama Arise executive director Hyden said a mass deportation would hurt immigrant families in Alabama and the state’s economy. She said it would be similar to what happened when Alabama passed the nation’s toughest immigration law in 2011, known as HB56. Federal courts blocked most of the law.
“For immigrant families, even people who are here with documentation, they will be forced back into the shadows if they have a family member who is undocumented,” Hyden said. “When Alabama passed HB56 in 2011, we saw an immediate and long-term impact to our economy and to public safety. When immigrants are threatened we find that they’re less likely apply for public benefits that their families might otherwise be eligible for. So kids are going without food or school meals or Medicaid.”
“We find that they are less likely to report crime out of fear or retaliation from law enforcement. And those workers continue to be exploited without legal status. So we’re really concerned about not just deportations but the demonization and blame of people without documentation.”
Carlos Aleman, executive director of HICA, a non-profit that focuses on helping immigrants build prosperity, said immigrant communities in Alabama are worried and uncertain.
“We’re just encouraging people to inform themselves and to make themselves aware of what rights they already have,” Aleman told AL.com. “We’re definitely hearing concerns, but it hasn’t necessarily led to a mass exodus of any sort.”
Voting against own interests?
Trump’s unofficial advisory group, the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, is talking about slashing the federal budget by 30%.
Alabama relies on federal programs more than most states. The ratio of federal spending vs. federal taxes paid per person in Alabama is about two-to-one, one of the highest in the nation, according to the Rockefeller Institute.
“I think it’s unfortunate at times that some Alabamians end up voting against their own interests,” state Sen. Merika Coleman of Pleasant Grove, chair of Alabama’s Legislative Black Caucus, said before the election. “And that’s just because of the partisanship.
“Alabama, when you look at us nationally, we are considered a poorer state. We are a receiver state, not a donor state. So we get lots of money from the federal government.”
Medicaid covers four out of every nine children in Alabama, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.
About 750,000 people in Alabama, roughly 15% of the population, were enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), previously called food stamps, as of June.
“One in five kids in our state live in poverty,” Hyden said. “One in four, 25%, deal with hunger. So any cuts to SNAP benefits or food assistance programs, those create more hungry children. And ultimately, that’s not what we want to see for a successful state.”
Hyden said the scale of cuts to federal spending that Trump and his advisors have talked about raises concerns about the future of programs like SNAP, Medicaid, and the Affordable Care Act.
“If a budget is a statement of our values, our values should be that we protect and support the common good and we want to uplift kids and families who are struggling, especially in these times when food is so expensive, healthcare is so expensive, the cost of housing is so expensive,“ Hyden said. ”These programs are there when people fall on hard times to make sure they can survive.”
