By Mike Cason
Alabama is expected to redraw its congressional districts after Thursday’s ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court that the map most likely violates the Voting Rights Act.
The Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision, affirmed a three-judge district court that ordered Alabama to add a second majority Black or near-majority Black district.
Six of the seven districts are majority white, even though Blacks make up slightly more than one-fourth of the population. The court ruled that Alabama should have a second district where Blacks have an opportunity to elect a representative of their choice.
On the current map, District 7, represented by Congresswoman Terri Sewell, D-Birmingham, is about 55% Black.
The other six districts range from about 60% to 81% white. Alabama has had the same 6-to-1 ratio since District 7 became a majority Black district in 1992.
Democrats and the organizations that supported the lawsuit hailed the Supreme Court decision as historic because it could result in a congressional delegation that better reflects the state’s population.
But there are no guarantees that a revised map will result in Alabama sending a second Black representative to Congress, a former political science professor and a Republican political consultant said.
Jess Brown, former political science professor at Athens State University and a longtime observer of Alabama politics, said he expects the Legislature to add Black voters to District 2 to try to satisfy the court’s mandate for a second district where Blacks have an opportunity to elect their chosen candidate.
District 2 extends from the Wiregrass to Montgomery and neighboring counties. Except for District 7, District 2 has the largest proportion of Black population at 30%.
Brown said District 2 could become a swing district or one that leans Democrat depending on how the black-white ratio changes. About 90% of Black voters vote for Democratic candidates, Brown said, while white voters overwhelming support Republicans.
“If that district is still less than 40% minority, given the racial polarization in voting, that’s still going to be a noncompetitive district and it’s going to be a Republican district,” Brown said.
“If the minority population gets to 40%, that district starts to be competitive. It’s not a D district, it’s not an R district, it starts to look purple to me when you reach 40%. And at about 45% minority voters, I think a district would have be viewed as competitive and perhaps even leaning Democratic.”
District 7, on the other hand, stands to lose some Black voters on a redrawn map, lowering the margin of the Black majority closer to 50% and possibly making that district less safe for Sewell, Alabama’s only Democratic representative and only Black member of Congress.
“Now what Republicans might try to do is trade off here,” Brown said.
“If we’re having to give up a solid district (District 2), we’re going to try to make the Democrats give up a solid district (District 7). So we’re going to create two districts and each of them are roughly 47 percent minority (for example). So that it will just be two competitive districts.”
Republican political consultant Jonathan Gray expects substantial changes to District 1, which includes Mobile and Baldwin counties and the southwest corner of the state, and District 2.
Gray said his best guess is that the new map will have Congressman Barry Moore, R-Enterprise, running as an incumbent in a redrawn District 2 that is closer to a 50-50 racial split and more favorable for a Democratic candidate.
But Gray said Democrats could still face an uphill battle against the incumbent Moore, partly because he said they have not been effective at raising money in recent Alabama elections.
Meanwhile, Sewell who is serving her seventh term, could face more risk in what has been a safe district.
“You know the old saying. Please don’t throw me in the briar patch,” Gray said. “There are some people in the Legislature saying, ‘You want two districts? We’ll give them to you. But they’re going to be competitive.’
“By diluting Terri Sewell’s district and adding white voters and moving black voters to a second district, you’re not going to have a guaranteed district. What you’re now going to have is two very competitive districts.”
Sewell, who applauded the court ruling, said Thursday she expects District 7 to change but also expects to continue to represent it. A native of Selma who lives in Birmingham, Sewell said she recognizes that some areas of the Black Belt in her district might move to another.
“I’ve enjoyed representing the amazing district that includes so many of the historic civil rights sites and places,” Sewell said. “And I’ve enjoyed representing a majority of the Black Belt. I grew up in the Black Belt, I’m a daughter of the Black Belt.”
“But progress demands that you make sacrifices, and this is a small price to pay to get fair representation in the state of Alabama,” Sewell said.
Both Brown and Gray said they expect the most substantial changes to the map to be south of Birmingham. In particular, they do not expect changes that would pose any risk for Reps. Mike Rogers in District 3 in east Alabama or Robert Aderholt in District 4 in northwest Alabama.
Aderholt is in his 14th term, serves on the appropriations committee and is the chairman of an appropriations subcommittee. Rogers is in his 11th term and chairs the House Armed Services Committee.
“It matters a lot for Alabama the amount of clout we have in Washington,” Brown said.
“And right now there are two of our House members that have seats in the front benches. It’s Aderholt, and it’s Rogers. And I just can’t see the Legislature wanting to substantially redo their districts.”
Brown said he does not expect changes as sweeping as some of those proposed by the experts for the plaintiffs in the lawsuit.
The court found that those proposed maps with a second majority Black district were sound in design and followed traditional redistricting principals such as compactness.
Some did propose substantial change though, such as changing District 1 from a coastal and southwest Alabama district to one that extends across the southern border of the state to the Georgia state line.
“I’ve seen those plaintiff maps before,” Brown said.
“I’ll be very surprised if the Legislature disturbs existing districts that much. It’s like a puzzle, it’s got seven pieces. And when you change the shape of one piece, you inevitably change the shape of at least one other piece, perhaps multiple pieces of the puzzle. So there will be some reconfiguration of districts. But I’m guessing that the major shifts will occur Birmingham-south, with perhaps limited tweaking above Birmingham.”
Gray said one potential issue with substantial changes to Districts 1 and 2 would be putting District 1 Rep. Jerry Carl, R-Mobile, in the same district as Moore.
“You may have Barry Moore, running as an incumbent in a new district that was drawn for Democrats,” Gray said.
“And I guess we’re going to flip a coin and see if Barry can withstand the challenge. That’s what I think is going to happen. But if they’re not careful in drawing that boundary line when they redraw 1 and 2, (they) could end up pitting Jerry Carl and Barry Moore head-to-head and one of the two is going home.”
